The Polish Economy in the Year 2000: Need and Outlook for Systemic Reforms, Recovery and Growth Strategy

Zbigniew Fallenbuchl, Paul Marer


The prospects for economic development in Poland for the rest of this century depend on the ability of the authorities to handle a number of very serious obstacles that presently face the economy. If the constraints imposed by these obstacles are significantly reduced during the second half of the 1980s, a considerable improvement may take place during the 1990s. If, however, the authorities choose to follow present economic policies without modification, prolonged stagnation will likely continue. The final outcome will, of course, also depend on a number of external factors beyond the authorities' control, such as the state of the political and economic situation in the world and within the Warsaw Pact Bloc, East-West political and economic relations or the occurrence of some unforeseen natural or man-made ecological disaster. Assuming, however, no big changes in exogenous factors, the economic situation in Poland in the year 2000 will primarily be determined by the authorities' policies within the next few years.

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